Introduction

Welcome to MCP: By The Numbers, an article series examining the MCP meta based on data from Longshanks. For the first article, we're going to look at the results from August 2022. We will be examining the win rate of each faction, which crises are being picked, and what point levels people are playing at. August was an interesting month with 1721 games logged on Longshanks up from 1347 last month. August also saw the release of Malekith and Winterguard models.

Win Rates

Figure 1: Posterior win rate belief for all affiliations.

Big winners this month are SHIELD (MAP estimate 0.67 HDPI (0.59,0.74)), who appear to have hit their stride, becoming the forerunner for the faction to beat. Malekith has also landed, pushing Cabal (MAP estimate 0.55 HDPI (0.49, 0.61)) from the back of the pack, up to the forefront. Also in the improvement category, A-Force (MAP estimate 0.48 HDPI (0.38, 0.58)) moved up into the middle of the field, leaving Defenders (MAP estimate 0.36 HDPI (0.26, 0.47)) behind. August saw the release of the Winterguard affiliation (MAP estimate 0.48 HDPI (0.38 0.58)), landing in the middle of the pack for win rate.

Crisis Selection

Figure 2: Crisis selection rates for Secures and Extracts. The grey line represent a uniform selection rate.

Hammers continues to be the dominant extract followed up by spider infected, while senators and legacy virus being the least popular. On the secure side, infinity formula, gamma wave, and demons are popular, while cosmic invasion, mayor fisk, and sword base are plyed the least. So practice those hammers/infinity formula games.

Points Selection

Figure 3: The distribution of points games were played at durring August.

17 points is the most common point level games are played at, doubling the frequency of the next most common, 18 points. Higher point values are also more popular than lower ones; unsurprising that bringing more toys proves more popular.

Discussion

It's clear from online rumblings Malekith is having an impact on the meta. With brawling crises being popular, SHIELD is being seen as a good counter pick; it's should be no surprise than that we're seeing SHIELD shoot up in win rate. Will the release of Hydra next month cement this as a brawling meta? Will the rise of Shield clip Malekith's wings?